Is Türkiye Being Bypassed? €22bn Black Sea Cable to Carry Azerbaijani Green Power to Europe
Ankara-based Russian Studies Institute (@rusencenter) said in a post on X that Azerbaijan will sell electricity generated from renewable sources to Europe through a €22 billion project, with sales starting between 2032 and 2040. The post also said Turkish companies were “likely” to take part as subcontractors. The claim has revived the question of whether Türkiye is being sidelined as an energy route to Europe.
What is the claim?
The project is the Caspian–Black Sea–Europe Green Energy Corridor. Its developer, Green Energy Corridor Power Company (GECO), said the feasibility study has been completed and approved by the governments of the four participating countries. According to GECO’s investment presentation in October 2026, total investment is estimated at about €22.1 billion: €14.3 billion for transmission infrastructure and €7.8 billion for renewable generation capacity. GECO is a Bucharest-based joint venture in which Azerbaijan’s AzerEnerji, Georgian State Electrosystem (GSE), Romania’s Transelectrica and Hungary’s MVM each hold an equal 25% stake.
How would the route work?
The corridor consists of three high-voltage direct current (HVDC) links of 1.3 GW each, for a total capacity of 3.9 GW. The first link is planned for 2032, the second for 2036 and the third for 2040. Power would travel overland from Baku to Georgia. From the Georgian coast at Anaklia and Poti, submarine cables of about 1,120 km each would cross the Black Sea at depths of up to 2,200 metres to Constanța in Romania. The first link would continue overland to the Albertirsa substation near Budapest. Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov said a final investment decision is expected in 2029 and that the corridor should deliver about 20 billion kWh of electricity a year to Europe from 2040.
Who is involved?
The project is based on a strategic partnership agreement signed in Bucharest on 17 December 2022 by Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary with the support of the European Commission. It has been included in ENTSO-E’s Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2026, and the partners are seeking EU Project of Mutual Interest (PMI) status, which could open the way to EU co-financing. Bulgaria’s participation has long been discussed, but it has not yet joined as a partner.
What does it mean for Türkiye?
The cable does not cross Turkish territory or use the Turkish Straits, and Türkiye is not a partner in the four-country venture. However, a 2024 feasibility study summary commissioned by Georgia states that the cable route would cross the exclusive economic zones of Türkiye and Bulgaria as well as those of Georgia and Romania.
Ankara is meanwhile developing its own route. In April 2025, Türkiye signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Bulgaria for green electricity to reach Europe via an Azerbaijan–Georgia–Türkiye–Bulgaria route. A new interconnection through Nakhchivan is also under study. Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that, at Azerbaijan’s invitation, Türkiye has also expressed its intention to participate in and support the Black Sea cable project. Some outlets, including Balkan Green Energy News, view Türkiye’s overland route as a competitor to the Black Sea link.
What is confirmed and what is not
The project’s cost, partners, equal shareholding and 2032–2040 timeline are confirmed by official statements. The project has not yet reached a final investment decision. There is no official statement or source supporting the claim that Turkish companies will work as subcontractors; it is an assessment made in the post. The “bypass” framing is only partly accurate: Türkiye is neither a partner nor a transit country, but the cable is expected to cross its maritime jurisdiction, and Ankara is keeping both its alternative route and possible participation on the table.
Sources
- Russian Studies Institute (@rusencenter), post on X, November 2, 2026 — the claim.
- Green Energy Corridor Power Company (GECO) investment presentation, via Report.az, Trend and Azernews, October 2026 — investment estimate, shareholding, route and capacity.
- APA, October 24, 2026 — completion and approval of the feasibility study.
- Azerbaijan Ministry of Energy, via Report.az and APA, October 2026 — Parviz Shahbazov on the 2029 final investment decision and 2040 volumes.
- The Diplomat Bucharest, July 16, 2026 — ministerial meeting, GECO shareholders and PMI application.
- Reuters, September 3, 2024 — formation of the joint venture.
- CESI / Georgian State Electrosystem, Black Sea Submarine Cable feasibility study summary, 2024 — route crossing the EEZs of Georgia, Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania.
- Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, April 4, 2025 — Azerbaijan–Georgia–Türkiye–Bulgaria memorandum of understanding.
- Trend, interview with Alparslan Bayraktar — Türkiye’s three electricity projects and interest in the Black Sea cable.
- Balkan Green Energy News — analysis of Türkiye’s route as a competitor to the Black Sea link.
Illustrative image. Photo: Shixart1985, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons — source
